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By C. Hood, D. K. C. Jones

An exam of other theoretical, methodological and sensible methods in the direction of the administration of danger. Seven dimensions of the controversy are pointed out, and the case for every place is recommend, the entire dialogue being set in context and viewpoint. This quantity makes an attempt to spot and juxtapose the contested doctrines and underlying assumptions within the box of chance administration.

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Extra resources for Accident And Design: Contemporary Debates On Risk Management

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ANTICIPATION IN RISK MANAGEMENT: A STITCH IN TIME? information and increased exposure to loss arising from population growth, urbanization, wealth creation, economic restructuring and infrastructure development, and would be even greater but for anticipatory actions. Certainly, there is some evidence to indicate that an increasing proportion of the population is surviving major hazards such as tropical revolving storms and earthquakes (Fig. 5) and there is no evidence that the rate of “natural tax” is increasing.

1 respectively) resulted in very different levels of destruction (US$14 billion and US$7 billion) and markedly contrasting death tolls (25000 and 63 respectively). Just as impressive is the decline in lives lost in the continental USA because of hurricanes over the past century (Fig. 2), which reflects more resistant buildings, greatly improved forecasting and accuracy of warnings resulting from the use of aircraft and satellites, high levels of public awareness and well tested evacuation procedures.

Prescription, by contrast, is generally seen as of greater importance; it is far more important to suggest ways in which decision-makers might improve their practice than it is to describe their often pathetic attempts at making choices. Normative incrementalism holds that the future is so uncertain that any decision-maker will be advised to favour choices that keep future options open. This is not the end of the matter, of course, for maximum openness would be absurd; for example, building fossil-powered generating plant near every major town, because it keeps options open.

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